How To Trade The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference

The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, one of the biggest and most important events of the year for biotech investors, kicks off this week.

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison compiled a report on all the things investors should be watching for from the companies attending the conference. Here’s a brief overview.

• Celgene Corporation CELG - Expect in-line preliminary Q4 results and in-line to slightly above-consensus guidance for 2018. Morgan Stanley is calling for 2018 EPS of $8.82 on revenue of $14.8 billion.
• Sarepta Therapeutics Inc SRPT - Look for Exondys 51 Q4 commentary and potential 2018 guidance. Morgan Stanley expects $57 million in Q4 revenue and 2018 guidance in the $150 to $155 million range, not including Europe.
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN - Historically, management has provided expense guidance at the conference and revenue guidance on its Q4 earnings call. Morgan Stanley is calling for 2018 EPS of $14.36, roughly 15 percent below Wall Street consensus.
• BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN-  BioMarin will likely update shareholders on its hemophilia gene studies and/or its Brineura launch. Morgan Stanley says neither will likely be a major stock catalyst.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX - While the company may preannounce Q4 numbers, management has said it is not issuing 2018 guidance until Tez/Iva is approved. Morgan Stanley expects a potential update on the companies cystic fibrosis triple-combination study would be the biggest possible conference catalyst.
• AveXis Inc AVXS - Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect AveXis will be able to file an early submission for AXVS-101 based on strong Phase I data. But if the company announces an early filing, Morgan Stanley estimates 20 percent upside for the stock.
• DBV Technologies SA – ADR DBVT - Morgan Stanley expects DBV will need to wait until after the pre-BLA meeting to provide shareholders with clarity on a potential timeline for Viaskin penut approval. However, if the company does provide a clear timeline at the conference, Harrison says the stock could rally 10 percent.
• Regenxbio Inc RGNX - Investors should expect updates from the Phase II/Phase II study of RGX-501 in HoFH and from the Phase I study of RGX-314 in wet AMD. Morgan Stanley predicts these updates will include safety, PK/PD and limited initial efficacy data, but full efficacy data will likely not be released until the second half of 2018.
• Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN - Management pay provide an update on the Soliris gMG launch. With investor expectations relatively low, Morgan Stanley estimates strong launch metrics could drive Alexion shares up to 5 percent higher.
• Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc. PTLA - Investors should expect an update on the Bevyexxa launch and potentially the AndexXa delay. Morgan Stanley predicts that positive commentary on ANNEXA-4 thrombosis risk, the stock could see 15 percent upside.
• Denali Therapeutics Inc DNLI - Investors should expect an update on the path for DNL201 development and potentially announce an IND filing for DNL747 (RIPK1). If a filing is announced, Morgan Stanley sees up to 5 percent upside for the stock.
• MacroGenics Inc MGNX - The company pay provide an update on futility analysis of the Phase-III SOPHIA trial of margetuximab in treatment of HER2+breast cancer. Morgan Stanley sees more downside (25 percent) than upside (5 percent) risk for the stock given the well-validated treatment approach.
• Juno Therapeutics Inc JUNO - Positive CAR-T commentary from Gilead and/or Novartis could drive Juno shares higher. Management may also update shareholders on its TRANSEND NHL study, which Morgan Stanley says could be a 5 percent catalyst for the stock in either direction.
• Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd BHVN - Negative safety data related to ubrogepant could trigger up to a 10 percent sell-off in Biohaven, Morgan Stanley estimates. Outside of safety concerns, investors should be focusing on the secondary endpoints in rimegepant’s Phase II data.

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