KeyBanc: Harley-Davidson Registration Numbers Show Cold Start To 2019

Harley-Davidson Inc HOG has been rather quiet since its January earnings miss, and one analyst team expects continued coasting.

The Analyst 

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brett Andress maintained a Sector Weight rating on Harley-Davidson.

The Thesis

By KeyBanc’s assessment, Harley-Davidson’s international growth continues to slow.

Countries accounting for 70 percent of the global market recorded a 19.2-percent decline in Harley registrations this January, Andress said in a Thursday note. Last year, registrations rose 19.1 percent over the same period.

“While one month does not make a trend, January declines in our monthly reporting countries came in worse than we anticipated, though compares do ease meaningfully in [February and March]," the analyst said. 

The Asia-Pacific region saw broad-based drops for a second consecutive month, including a high-double-digit decline in India.

Latin America sales moderated — with particular weakness in Brazil — and Western Europe reported softness as the U.K. suffered pressure.

“Flowing monthly trends forward (and assuming sustained trends in quarterly-reporting countries) puts our index in the mid single-digit/high single-digit range for [the first quarter of 2019], implying HOG's reported international retail in the low single-digit/mid single-digit range," Andress said. 

Harley-Davidson’s next quarterly report is slated for release April 23.

Price Action

Harley-Davidson shares were up 0.43 percent at $37.43 at the close Thursday and were trading slightly higher premarket Friday. 

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