Why Boeing Could Be A Big Loser In US-China Trade War

U.S. stocks took a beating Monday following reports that China will be raising tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. Some stocks were hit harder than others, and Boeing Co BA was particularly weak.

Boeing shares traded lower by more than 3 percent as traders made bearish bets that China may choose to make an example out of the U.S. aircraft maker.

Boeing A Target?

China’s Global Times has reported China may “reduce Boeing orders” as part of its strategy in an escalating trade war with the U.S.

“We’re confident the US and China will continue trade discussions and come to an agreement than benefits both US and Chinese manufacturers and consumers,” a Boeing spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.

Boeing’s business has a large exposure to China. Jeffries estimates as much of a third of Boeing’s orders for its core 737 aircraft com from China. Boeing generated about $13.7 billion in revenue from China in fiscal 2018. On Monday, Buckingham Research Group analyst Richard Safran said China is a real threat for Boeing.

“We remain Neutral and believe that ongoing trade risks and the need for some assurance that MAX issues are resolved causes BA to remain in the penalty box with more downside risk than upside potential,” Safran wrote.

Some analysts say China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China. Last year, Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein said it’s unlikely China will be too aggressive in targeting Boeing.

“In our view, it will be difficult for China to support the strong expected air travel demand without buying Boeing aircraft,” Epstein said.