Morgan Stanley Deboards From Cruise Lines, Bearish On Carnival, Norwegian And Royal Caribbean

The shares of a number of cruise liners have been hit due to the coronavirus pandemic that's continuing to harm the travel industry. Morgan Stanley downgraded cruise liners Wednesday and said it expects cruises to resume in the fourth quarter.

The Cruise Lines Analyst

Jamie Rollo reinstated coverage of Carnival Corp CCL and Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL with an Underweight rating and price targets of $11 and $33, respectively. 

The analyst downgraded Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH from Equal-weight to Underweight with a price target cut from $14 to $13. 

The Cruise Lines Thesis

The cruise industry will take longer than almost any other form of travel to return to normal, Rollo said in a note. (See his track record here.)

“Cruising needs not just international travel to return, but ports to reopen, authorities to permit cruising, and the return of customer confidence,” the analyst said. 

A number of things need to happen for the cruise industry to resume sailing, and there is a risk this might not occur until 2021, and possibly later, he said. 

Morgan Stanley estimates that cruises will resume in the fourth quarter of 2020. Cruise lines have developed a comprehensive plan for resuming operations and sailing in a safe manner that takes into account the unique high-risk setting of cruise ships in the era of this coronavirus, Rollo said. 

“It's a tall order to try to make a cruise ship environment safe for sailing in an era of this virus continuing to circulate on the globe." 

The Cruise Line Industry Association is also currently looking at introducing new safety procedures, the analyst said. 

CCL, RCL, NCLH Price Action

Norwegian Cruise Line shares were trading 4.49% higher at $18.16 at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $59.78 and a 52-week low of $7.03.

Carnival Cruise shares were up 3.08% at $17.39. The stock has a 52-week high of $53.86 and a 52-week low of $7.80.

Royal Caribbean shares were trading up 3.36% at $57.85. The stock has a 52-week high of $135.32 and a 52-week low of $19.25.

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