Tesla's Electric Vehicle Competition 'Not A Measurable Threat' Yet, Gene Munster Says

Thanks to its control of 80% of the U.S. electric vehicle market, Tesla Inc TSLA has the highest valuation in the auto industry.

Rivals are never far off in the rearview mirror, a Tesla expert said this week. 

“For the company’s valuation to advance higher it will need to hold off other automakers as they roll out new EVs over the next five years,” Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster said in a Monday note.

Munster's Latest Tesla Projections: Munster said he expects Tesla’s domestic share to fall below 25% over the next decade, adding that it will fend off competition in the near-term.

“Based on the currently available EV models in the U.S. market, along with the models expected to be released next year, we believe Tesla will exit 2021 with a 70-80% market share,” he wrote. “If we’re correct, Tesla’s economies of scale will strengthen, making it more difficult for traditional automakers to benefit from the long-term secular shift to electric.”

So far, competitors have failed to introduce a serious threat. Automaker timelines suggest the U.S. EV market could have between 16 and 28 vehicles by the end of 2020 — but few hold a candle to Tesla’s Model 3.

“The majority of these new models suffer from one of two critical flaws: starting prices above $70,000 and/or ranges below 225 miles,” Munster wrote. “These two flaws rule out most EVs as mainstream options.”

Only five vehicles currently qualify as “mainstream,” and, in Munster’s view, Tesla’s Model 3 leads the pack with superior software, charging networks and design.

Munster's Tesla Takeaway: “Bottom line: competition in 2020 (and likely in 2021) is not a measurable threat to Tesla,” Munster wrote.

“The Model 3 is still unchallenged in its EV value proposition and we expect the availability this year of the short-range, $40k Model Y to help further sustain Tesla’s market position.”

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 1.42% at $1,008.45 at the time of publication Tuesday. 

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Photo courtesy of Tesla.