Novavax Analyst Says COVID-19 Vaccine Could Net $400M In Yearly Sales

Novavax, Inc. NVAX shares are on a dream run this year amid catalysts including its COVID-19 vaccine program.

The Novavax Analyst: Vernon Bernardino reiterated a top pick Buy rating on Novavax and raised the price target from $50 to $101. 

The Novavax Thesis: Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine candidate NVX-CoV2373 is likely a sustainable long-term market opportunity, Bernardino said in a Monday note. (See his track record here.)

H.C. Wainwright held a virtual fireside chat with Novavax executives Thursday. 

The $388 million in CEPI funding for Novavax de-risks clinical development of the vaccine candidate, the analyst said. 

Novavax is capable of being a robust competitor against larger vaccine makers, likely helping it realize over $400 million in annual sales of NVX-CoV2373, he said. 

Discussions with former U.S. Health and Human Services and BARDA official Kevin Gilligan increased Bernardino's positive view on Novavax's prospects for realizing a near-term lucrative market opportunity as well as sustained commercial opportunity, the analyst said. 

"Gilligan concluded that multiple therapeutic approaches, including antiviral and antibiotic strategies, would be important for a near-term response to the pandemic." 

Gilligan said it's likely that booster vaccinations, new vaccines against mutated SARS-CoV-2 and antiviral and antibody therapies will be needed to prepare for future pandemics, the analyst said. 

Matrix-M and vaccine adjuvants in general are underappreciated, Gilligan told H.C. Wainwright. 

"In a situation where a significant percentage of the world's 7B+ population may need to be vaccinated, the potential of adjuvants to boost vaccine efficacy, and thus, be dose-sparing could be important if not enough CoV vaccine is available for global distribution." 

At last check, Novavax shares were adding 8.3% to $83.81. 

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