Pfizer Analysts Raise Odds Of Success For Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate To 100%

Pfizer Inc. PFE reported Monday with strong Phase 3 interim efficacy data for its coronavirus vaccine candidate.

The Pfizer Analysts: Morgan Stanley analyst David Risinger has an Equal-weight rating on Pfizer with a $42 price target. 

SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating and increased the price target from $43 to $44.

Morgan Stanley On Pfizer's Vaccine Economics, Timeline: The more than 90% efficacy with 94 cases suggests the final analysis with 164 cases will in all likelihood exceed the FDA's efficacy criteria of 50%, Risinger said in a note.

Based on this and the lack of any serious safety concerns, the analyst raised the vaccine's probability of success from 65% to 100%.

With Pfizer planning to submit emergency use authorization in the third week of November — when it has two months of median safety data — Risinger said he expects the FDA to hold a panel meeting to discuss the data by early-to-mid December.

An emergency use authorization approval for health care workers and certain high-risk populations could come by late December, he said. 

Following six months of safety data, full approval is likely to come in the spring, Risinger said. 

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Morgan Stanley estimates 50% economic-adjusted and 100% risk-adjusted vaccine revenue of $488 million for Pfizer in 2020, with revenue increasing to $7.2 billion in 2021 and then moderating to $3.8 billion in 2023.

How Pfizer's High Efficacy Could Drive Early Adoption: The high vaccine efficacy and the absence of new safety signals led to SVB Leerink increasing its probability of success estimate from 80% to 100%, Porges said in a note. 

"We believe this high efficacy could drive up initial vaccine adoption, therefore our forecasts increase by 10-40% in 2022-2023," the analyst said. 

Given the likelihood of other vaccine candidates showing similar vaccine efficacy and competing for market share with lower unit prices in later years, SVB Leerink lowered its estimates for BNT162b2 by 10%-20% for 2026 and beyond.

The firm's global vaccine revenue forecast for Pfizer is at $258 million in the fourth quarter. This will increase to $4.6 billion in 2021 before declining to $2.8 billion by 2023 and plateauing between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion in the period from 2026 to $2029, Porges said. 

Consequently, SVB Leerink ncreased its total revenue and EPS forecast for Pfizer for the period from 2022 to 2023 by 2%-3% annually. 

PFE Price Action: At last check, Pfizer shares were trading down 1.4% to $38.61 Tuesday.

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