The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens

RealReal Inc REAL shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.

On Monday, the RealReal reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 10% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.

RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.

“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.

The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open approximately 10 neighborhood stores by the end of second quarter.

The RealReal’s Expansion Costs: Although analysts expect the RealReal to improve its revenue growth as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.

Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.

“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.

The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens: “We see REAL as one of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.

KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.

“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said

Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal boost its inventory.

“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.

Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.

“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.

The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets: KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.

Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.

Needham maintained a Hold rating.

Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.

RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.

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