Nvidia Investors Are Pulling Back On Q4 Results, But These Analysts Still Like Chipmaker's Potential

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA reported better-than-expected quarterly results Wednesday, but the stock is slipping amid a sector-wide tech sell-off and concerns about a potential slowdown in data center growth.

The Nvidia Analysts: Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill maintained a Buy rating and upped the price target from $700 to $800.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia shares and increased the price target from $650 to $700.

Raymond James analyst Chris Caso reiterated an Outperform rating and hiked the price target from $600 to $700.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Weston Twigg maintained a Sector Weight rating. 

Needham Crunches Q4 Numbers: Nvidia reported record quarterly sales of $5 billion, ahead of Needham's $4.8-billion estimate, and guided to first-quarter sales of $5.3 billion, also ahead of the firm's $4.3-billion estimate, Gill said in a note. 

The core data center segment remained strong, with adoption in multiple end markets, the analyst said.

"The A100 system, powered by the Ampere GPU, continue to show strength and vertical industries now represents >50% of revenue, with supercomputing, financial services, higher education and consumer internet showing strong adoption."

Gaming demand continues to be very strong, as only 15% of the 250-million-strong GeForce installed base is on Ampere, according to Needham. 

Related Link: NVIDIA: Q4 Earnings Insights

Why Nvidia Is Rosenblatt's Favorite Semi Play: Nvidia reported another beat-and-raise quarter amid continued supply chain constraints that will likely keep channel inventories at depressed levels for another one to two quarters, Mosesmann said.

All key product categories are expected to grow in the April quarter, taking the company's outlook to $5.3 billion, the analyst said. 

A key near-term theme is the $100 million to $300 million contribution from cryptos, he said.

Nvidia is trying to reduce crypto acceleration by reducing performance of GPUs by half when mining algorithms are turned on and by introducing crypto mining processors, Mosesmann said. 

"We are aligned with Nvidia's view that we are at the early stages of an AI driven cycle (data center acceleration, DPU adoption, GPU gaming raytracing inflection, and automotive)." 

Nvidia is one of Rosenblatt's favorite semiconductor plays, the analyst said. 

RayJay Says Nvidia's Growth Unmatched: The better-than-expected fourth-quarter print and the first-quarter revenue guidance that is 18% above the consensus were primarily due to strong performance by the gaming segment, Caso said in a note. All other segments also performed ahead of expectations, the analyst said. 

As supply constraints ease and more supply comes along as the year progresses, and with inventories nonexistent, revenue will continue to grow from here, he said. 

"Crypto will be an investor concern given the unsustainable crypto revenue back in 2018 — but the company appears to be taking steps to minimize that as a percent of revenue, and the gaming market is clearly much stronger than the 2018 cycle."

Although first-quarter expectations for the data center business appear modest, A100 adoption and higher hyperscale capex will work out positively for the segment, Caso said. 

On a net basis, Nvidia is on pace to double organic revenue from fiscal 2020 to 2022, and has quadrupled revenue since 2016, the analyst said. 

"While the multiple is high, no one else in the space is coming close to this level of growth, and they have multiple shots on goal in gaming and datacenter that can continue to drive growth."

NVDA Price Action: Nvidia shares lost 8.22% in Thursday's session, closing at $532.30. 

Related Link: Nvidia's Comprehensive Involvement In Gaming Market Continues Strong Demand: Rosenblatt