Soup Category Remains Hot, But Will It Cool Down?

Prepackaged soup products were an early beneficiary of the COVID-19 pandemic and the category's momentum carried over into 2021, according to RBC Capital Markets.

The Campbell Soup Company Analyst: Nik Modi maintains an Outperform rating on Campbell Soup Company's CPB stock with an unchanged $45 price target.

The Campbell Soup Company Thesis: Consumers rushed to buy many shelf-stable products during the early days of the pandemic and nearly a whole year later the category remains hot, Modi wrote in a note. In fact, soup household penetration reached 88.2% in January versus 85.2% last year.

In Campbell's case, the company has seen sales of its condensed soup rise by a high-single-digit since September, the analyst wrote. This makes the case for soup sales to remain elevated versus pre-pandemic levels, although tough comparisons in the coming months likely imply a volume slowdown is imminent.

Related Link: Campbell Soup CEO To Investors: Guidance Reflects 'Confidence'

The soup company also deserves credit for acting fast last year and prioritizing its best-selling products, including Tomato and Chicken Noodle soups. The streamlined portfolio prompted Campbell to realize a 15% organic growth rate since last April despite a 30% drop in distribution points.

"We believe CPB's efforts to lead SKU rationalization will allow the company to help retailers build the soup aisle with more productive SKUs going forward," Modi wrote.

CPB Price Action: Shares of Campbell Soup Company were trading higher by nearly 1% late Friday morning at $46.18.

(Photo by Paweł Czerwiński on Unsplash)