Analyst: Aurora, Canopy, Tilray And Other Canadian Cannabis Co. Performances By Province

When the federal Cannabis Act came into effect in October 2018 and Canada became the second country in the world, after Uruguay, to legalize adult-use cannabis, needless to say, the market exploded.

Today the biggest names in the Canadian cannabis space include Aurora Cannabis ACB, Canopy Growth CGC, Hexo HEXO, Organigram Holdings OGI, and Tilray TLRY.

In its latest analyst note, Cantor Fitzgerald’s Pablo Zuanic shared his thoughts on the current sales growth and market share trends by province, while keeping their ratings and estimates unchanged.

“For the most part, trends are erratic, with few consistent performers,” Zuanic noted.

Comparing adult-use retail sales for Jan-Apr 2021 with Sep-Dec 2020, Ontario gained the most with sales improving by 18% sequentially. Alberta sales grew 4% and British Columba 3%.

Zuanic noted that across the country cannabis operators like Hexo and Canopy Growth “grew mid/low teens, with Ontario leading their sequential growth. Organigram and Pure Sunfarms (owned by Village Farms International) grew by high/low single digits, despite drops for both in Alberta. Sales for new Aphria+Tilray fell 6% and Aurora sales fell 19%, with drops in Alberta and British Columbia for both, and mostly stable Ontario trends. “

Sales Growth And Market Share Trends By Company And Province

Aurora: Comparing recreational retail sales for Jan-Apr 2021 with Sep-Dec 2020, Aurora lost 19%, compared to the market’s gain of 7%. Its national market share fell to 6.9%. The company lost the least in Ontario, where its recreational sales declined 3%, while in Alberta it experienced the biggest decrease of 39%. For context, Aurora had 128 SKUs in Ontario, 111 in Alberta, and 129 in British Columbia.

Organigram: Using the same comparative period, Organigram adult-use sales grew 9%, compared to the market’s growth of 7%. Its national market share didn’t move from 4.5%. In Ontario, the company had the biggest growth in sales of 37%, while in British Columbia its sales fell the most – 21%. For context, Organigram had 88 SKUs in Ontario, 89 in Alberta, and 66 in British Columbia.

Canopy Growth: The combined company with The Supreme Cannabis Company, Inc. FIRE SPRWF has seen a jump of 11% in its recreational retail sales, compared to the market’s growth of 7%. Its national market share increased 0.5pt to 14.7%. The best province for the combined company in the period was Ontario, where its sales increased 25%, while the worst was British Columbia with its sales there falling 3%. For context, the combined company had 184 SKUs in Ontario, 179 in Alberta, and 138 in British Columbia.

Aphria combined with Tilray: The combined company adult-use retail sales fell 6%, versus the market’s gain of 7%. Its national market share dropped 2.7pt to 18.5%. The combined company’s sales fell in all three provinces – in Ontario the least or 1%, and in British Columbia the most or 10%. For context, the combined company had 271 SKUs in Ontario, 258 in Alberta, and 219 in British Columbia.

Price Actions

Aurora’s shares were trading 1.10% higher at $7.32 at the time of writing.

Organigram’s shares were up 1.51% at $2.68 per share.

Both Canopy’s and Tilray’s shares were also up, around 0.69% at 22.98, and 0.07% at $15.03, respectively.

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Photo by Esteban Lopez on Unsplash