Apple iPad, Mac Have 'Positive Demand Tailwind': Gene Munster

At the "Spring Loaded" event in April, Apple Inc. AAPL unveiled new hardware, including new iPad Pros and a new iMac.

Demand For Mac, iPad Through The Roof: Demand for the Mac and iPad over the last 12 months has been strong thanks to remote work and learning trends, Loup Ventures managing partner and famed Apple analyst Gene Munster said in a note.

Loup Ventures' spot check of Apple lead times for these products suggest demand is still outpacing supply exiting the June quarter, the tech venture capitalist said. Estimated delivery dates for some iPad and Mac models are more than a month out, he added.

The highest lead time is for the iPad, at 22-32 business days, while for the iMac 24-inch model, it is 18-23 days, Munster said. 

"During periods of supply demand equilibrium, lead times are typically less than two business days." 

Apple saw strong growth of 70% for the Mac and 79% for iPad in the March quarter. Things could get even better for Apple, in Munster's view. 

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Munster On Apple's Supply, Demand Dynamics: Supply constraints will probably take a few more months to iron out, according to Loup Ventures.

This will likely modestly temper Mac and iPad results in the September quarter, Munster said. 

Elevated demand will be longer-lasting, thanks to the work- and learn-from-anywhere tailwind, along with the ongoing transition of the Mac lineup to M1 chips, he said. 

The MacBook Pro 16-inch, iMac 27-inch and Mac Pro — which account for about 30% of Mac revenues — are expected to transition to M1 chips over the next 12 to 18 months, the analyst noted.

Loup Ventures estimates that Mac and iPad revenue could grow by 8%, 7%, 6% and 4%, respectively, in fiscal years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, as opposed to the flat performance seen in the five years leading up to the pandemic.

"Net net, we see the positive demand tailwind as much stronger and more sustainable than any supply headwinds," Munster said.

AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were trading 0.65% higher at $137.22 at last check Wednesday. 

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Photo: the Apple iPad. Courtesy photo.