Can Apple's Q3 Results Support The New Buoyancy In The Stock?

Apple, Inc. AAPL is scheduled to report third-quarter results Tuesday after the market close. The results are key for the stock to continue the momentum it has recently shown. 

Apple Q3 Consensus Estimates: Analysts, on average, estimate Apple will report third-quarter earnings per share of $1 on revenue of $72.93 billion.

The Street estimates are conservative, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a note last week.

The analyst predicates his positive expectations on the iPhone strength seen during the quarter, with a particular uptick in demand out of China.

Famed Apple analyst and Loup Funds managing partner Gene Munster pencils EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $73.3 million.

In the year-ago quarter, the company reported EPS of 64 cents and revenue of $59.69 billion. In the previous quarter, the metrics were at $1.40 and $89.6 million, respectively.

Munster Sees Accelerating iPhone Momentum: Apple's flagship iPhone is likely to benefit from early 5G adoption, an aging base of iPhones three years old or older and the positive impact from stimulus checks in the U.S., Munster said.

He expects 33% year-over-year growth in iPhone revenue to $35.2 billion vis-à-vis the consensus estimate of $34.2 billion.

Last week, UBS analyst David Vogt raised his iPhone unit forecast from 42 million to 44 million and the ASP estimate by 2% to $825. In the U.S., the analyst sees aggressive promotions from U.S. carriers helping iPhone numbers. Upside to estimates is limited by macro supply chain issues and not demand, the analyst said. 

Mac, iPad Bear Brunt Of Component Shortage: Mac and iPad revenue growth is likely to moderate from the frenetic pace seen in the March quarter, as component shortages serve as a drag. Munster expects Mac sales to rise 13% to $8 billion and iPad sales at $7.2 billion, a slowdown in growth from 79% in the March quarter to 9%.

Related Link: Why This Apple Stock Analyst Says It's Time To Buy

Services Growth Settles Around Mid-Teens: The Services segment, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of Apple's revenues, may have grown revenue by 18%, according to Munster.

This is a slowdown from the 27% growth witnessed in the March quarter.

"Long-term, we expect growth to remain around 15% consistently as Apple continues to layer on more Services, including recently announced Apple Fitness+ and its podcast marketplace," Munster wrote in a note.

Looking Ahead: For the September quarter, analysts are modeling in EPS of $1.11 and revenues of $81.03 billion. Full-year EPS and revenues are estimated at $5.18 and $354.61 billion, respectively.

UBS analyst Vogt models iPhone unit sales of 227 million for fiscal year 2021.

Munster is of the view Apple will remain a growth story for the foreseeable future. Over the next two-plus years, the company will benefit from the digital transformation that is in play, 5G enthusiasm and growing anticipation of new business segments, he said. 

The three biggest untapped markets, Munster said, are AR/MR, wellness, and the opportunity around autonomy with the Apple Car.

Apple shares will approach $200 over the next couple of years, he added.

Wedbush named Apple as its large cap tech name to play the 5G transformational cycle, with the one-two punch of its massive services business and iPhone product cycle translating into a $3-trillion market cap in 2022.

Apple Shares Wakes Up From 1H Slumber: Apple shares ended the first half of 2021 up merely 3.6% despite stellar fundamental performance. The company underperformed most of its FAANG peers.

The shares picked up momentum at the start of the July, and on July 15, hit an all-time intraday high of $150. After a minor pullback, the stock is closing in on its record high.

Apple shares gained 0.29% Monday, closing at $148.99.

Related Link: Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity

Photo: Apple CEO Tim Cook.