Moderna Analysts Debate Need For Biopharma's COVID-19 Booster Shot

Moderna, Inc. MRNA shares are picking up momentum after a steep sell-off on Monday, triggered by a scientific publication that suggested booster doses are unwarranted at this point of time.

The company released a statement Wednesday that said incremental data from the Phase 3 COVE study suggested waning immunity a year after the first two doses — a supporting argument in favor of a booster dose.

The Moderna Analysts: BofA Securities analyst Geoff Meacham maintained an Underperform rating on Moderna with a $115 price target.
Needham analyst Joseph Stringer has a Hold rating.

Unvaccinated Individuals Are Priority, BofA Says: Both Moderna and Pfizer, Inc. PFE are far more bullish on the imminent need for boosters in contrast to the Food and Drug Administration's more measured outlook, BofA analyst Meacham said.

Moderna's analysis effectively emphasizes that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, MRNA-1273, remains highly effective at preventing COVID-19 infection including the delta variant; COVID-19 incidence rates are lower in more recently vaccinated individuals; and waning immunity could lead to more COVID-19 cases in the fall, the analyst said. 

This data together justifies a 3rd 50ug booster dose to elevate the strength of immunity ahead of expected increases in cases during the fall and winter, he said, citing the company.

"And while we don't disagree that a third dose should increase antibody titers, we question the need given sustained protection against severe disease, known safety profile (fever, nausea, low rate myocarditis and pericarditis), and majority of Delta infections in unvaccinated individuals." 

BofA sees bolstering uptake in the vaccine-hesitant and pediatric populations as the more urgent areas of focus for ending the pandemic.

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Moderna consensus' revenue estimates of $19.7 billion for 2021 and $20.4 billion for 2022 are already reflecting third-dose boosters in much of the world over the next six to 12 months, Meacham said. The stock valuation, the analyst said, is already discounting significant perpetual COVID-19 revenues and a high level of derisking across the company's pipeline.

Needham Sees Readthrough From Pfizer's Adcom Verdict: If Friday's Adcom vote for Pfizer/BioNTech SE BNTX's COVID-19 booster dose does not support a third shot, it would be a negative readthrough to MRNA's regulatory path for a booster shot, Needham analyst Stringer said.

Moderna has submitted to the FDA an emergency use authorization and to the EMA an application for conditional marketing approval for a third dose, the analyst said.

The FDA has already approved the emergency use of a third dose booster of Moderna's vaccine in immunocompromised adults, he said. 

"We await outcome of Pfizer AdCom mtg to gain further visibility into potential implications for MRNA." 

MRNA Price Action: At last check, Moderna shares were 1.32% higher at $440.19. 

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