Tesla Deliveries Are On 'Massive Trajectory' In September, Analyst Says

As Tesla, Inc. TSLA gears up to release its third-quarter deliveries numbers, an analyst at Wedbush said he is confident the company will exceed consensus expectations.

The Tesla Analyst: Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.

The Tesla Takeaways: The chip shortage may have markedly constrained Tesla's supply and deliveries in July and August, Ives said in a note.

The analyst estimates combined deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles for the two months.

The company is on a "massive trajectory" in September, with deliveries for the month likely hitting 145,000 to 150,000, he said. China is a major "swing factor," Ives said. 

Related Link: Tesla Reports Q3 Deliveries This Week: What To Expect

Given that much of the Model Y/3 supply to Europe is coming from Giga Shanghai, the logistics in the region remain complex, the analyst said. 

Tesla's deliveries could potentially approach 230,000 in the third quarter, handily beating Wedbush's estimate of 212,000 and early whisper numbers in the range of 220,000, he said. 

"The pace of EV deliveries in the US and China have been robust the last 4-6 weeks with an eye-popping growth trajectory heading into 4Q and 2022 for Musk & Co." 

Wedbush projects the chip shortage will shave about 40,000 units off Tesla's annual delivery number. Tesla's auto gross margin will likely expand over the coming quarters, which is key to the longer-term thesis, Ives said. 

The company's ability to navigate challenges such as chip shortage headwinds, still-recovering demand in China and intense EV competition have been very impressive, the analyst said. 

TSLA Price Action: At last check, Tesla shares were up 0.33% at $780.10. 

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