Can Moderna Deliver A Highly Effective Flu Vaccine?

Moderna, Inc.'s MRNA vaccine franchise has further legs to play out, according to an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

The Moderna Analyst: Matthew Harrison has an Equal-weight rating and a $313 price target for Moderna shares.

The Moderna Thesis: The success of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines has led to the development of additional respiratory vaccines using the technology, Harrison said in a note.

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The next key vaccine readout, the analyst said, will be on Moderna's lead flu candidate, code-named mRNA-1010, in the coming weeks to months.

Current flu vaccines suffer from relatively low efficacy, evident in low antibody titers, and a mismatch of encoded antigens to flu proteins circulating during the season, the analyst said. Based on Morgan Stanley's modeling, a mean HAI titer of about 1,500 would translate to a 90% effective vaccine.

A highly effective vaccine can have seroconversion rates above the 50-60% from current flu vaccines, the analyst said.

"We believe Moderna can achieve this threshold, which should increase investor confidence in the LT vaccine franchise," the analyst wrote in the note.

MRNA Price Action: Moderna shares closed down 0.34% at $234.28