Macy's Analysts Break Down Q3 Earnings: 'Potential For New Value Unlocks'

Macy's Inc M shares pulled back by 4.7% on Friday after the stock’s big post-earnings gain on Thursday.

Macy’s reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.23 on revenue of $5.4 billion. Both numbers topped consensus analyst estimates of 31 cents and $5.2 billion, respectively. Revenue was up 35.3% from a year ago.

Macy’s reported 35.6% comparable-store sales growth, exceeding analyst estimates of 29.3%. Online sales were up 19% year-over-year and 49% on a two-year basis. Macy’s said online sales now make up 33% of total sales, up from just 23% in 2019.

Perhaps the most bullish news from Macy’s is that the company has hired consulting firm AlixPartners to review its business model. Activist investor Jana Partners has been pressuring Macy’s to spin-off its e-commerce business to potentially unlock value.

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Voices From The Street: Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger said rising costs and margin risks keep her cautious on Macy’s.

“Rising costs & difficulty lapping robust full price sales could pressure '22 results, especially if demand slows down,” Greenberger wrote in a note.

Credit Suisse analyst Michael Benetti said the U.S. consumer is strong, and that strength is reflected in same-store sales growth numbers and margins.

“While we have concerns that longer-term incremental industry pressures will restart by late 2022, our raised target multiple reflects better near-term execution by Macy’s and potential for new value unlocks (like a bigger marketplace model) in 2022 and beyond,” Benetti wrote.

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey said Macy’s third quarter was impressive, but longer-term traffic concerns remain.

“The fourth quarter EPS guidance is slightly below the current consensus estimate despite the strong third quarter trends, with impacts from supply chain constraints, a tight labor market, and shipping surcharges contemplated in the outlook,” Telsey wrote.

Ratings And Price Targets:

• Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating and $23 target.
• Credit Suisse has an Underperform rating and $32 target.
• Telsey Advisory Group has a Market Perform rating and $40 target.