Ahead Of Moderna's Midstage mRNA Flu Vaccine Readout, Analyst Says Drugmaker Likely To Be First To Market

After COVID-19 vaccine-induced strength, Moderna, Inc. MRNA is on the lookout for the next big catalyst to boost its rangebound stock.

The Moderna Analyst: BofA Securities analyst Geoff Meacham reiterated a Neutral rating on Moderna shares and increased the price target from $170 to $180.

How Phase 2 Flu Vaccine Could Pan Out: Moderna is due to announce Phase 2 data for its seasonal flu vaccine candidate, codenamed mRNA-1010, in the coming weeks, Meacham said.

Initial Phase 1 data for the investigational vaccine was in line with BofA's expectations, the analyst said. A lackluster tolerability profile is a headwind, he said. 

The Phase 2 trial is testing lower doses, and this could improve adverse events, Meacham said. It will be a delicate balance between efficacy and tolerability, the analyst said.

"However, even with lower doses, our experts agree that mRNA-1010 is likely to show non-inferiority to the active comparator."
Other attributes such as manufacturing speed could vouch for the superiority of mRNA-1010, he said. 

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Moderna Faces Crowded Flu Market: The flu vaccine market, Meacham said, is getting crowded, with Sanofi SNY, GlaxoSmithKline plc GSK and CSL all having a presence, the analyst said. 

Although the incumbents are also working on mRNA flu vaccines, they are a little late to enter vis-à-vis Pfizer, Inc. PFE and Moderna, both of which are clear leaders, Meacham said. With Pfizer due to release Phase 1 data in the first half, Moderna will likely be first to market, the analyst said.

Any early mover advantage Moderna may hold could be short-lived due to the speed of development of mRNA vaccines, he said.

Traditional Vs. mRNA Vaccines: The price of the mRNA vaccine could be a limitation for the uptake given that traditional vaccines are cheap, BofA said, citing key opinion leaders.

To see a broader adoption, mRNA flu vaccines would have to be either priced in line with traditional vaccines or show superior efficacy, the firm said.

A large Phase 3 efficacy trial would need to be run to convince large hospital centers and clinics to purchase Moderna's flu vaccine over traditional vaccines, Meacham said. 

MRNA Price Action: Moderna shares were down 1.04% at $177.06 late Monday morning. 

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