10 Investor Questions About COVID-19, Answered

The COVID-19 outbreak has finally subsided in the U.S., but biotech investors still have plenty of lingering questions about the virus and what to expect in the months and years ahead.

On Thursday, Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham answered 10 of the most common COVID-19 questions he's heard as of late.

1. Is a BA.2 variant spike in the US inevitable, and what would it look like?

Meacham said U.S. outbreaks of COVID variants have typically occurred a week or two after European outbreaks, but the U.S. currently has a favorable level of immunity and may not get hit as hard by BA.2.

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2. What do future new case curves look like?

As of now, he predicts there will be periodic sweeping waves of new variants that spread globally with a steadily decreasing proportion of severe outcomes.

3. Who needs a 4th dose?

Moderna Inc MRNA and Pfizer Inc. PFE each have fourth doses approved by the FDA for people over the age of 50, but Meacham said the world will likely start relying more on on-demand therapeutics, such as Pfizer's Paxlovid, rather than frequent booster vaccinations.

4. Do kids under 5 need vaccines, and will they be available?

Both Pfizer and Moderna have a path to vaccine approval for children under five. Given the lack of severe COVID outcomes in young children and the relatively low vaccine utilization rate among kids ages 5 to 11, Meacham said he expects an extremely low utilization rate for vaccines even if they are eventually approved for children under the age of 5.

5. What has been the early experience with Paxlovid?

At this point, Meacham said physician feedback on Paxlovid is limited and anecdotal, and it has been difficult to precisely assess what benefits the drug is providing.

6. Is there an appetite or need for another vaccine option?

Novavax, Inc. NVAX is seeking FDA approval for its NVX-C0V2373 vaccine candidate. Since more more than 70% of U.S. adults have already been vaccinated and many of the remainder aren't looking to be vaccinated, Meacham said the market for additional vaccines is limited at this point.

7. Are mask mandates a thing of the past?

Meacham said he believes broad mask mandates are likely finished, but more targeted masking rules during outbreaks will likely still be used.

8. As we relax restrictions in schools, can we expect transmission within schools to drive new spikes?

He said there is little evidence that school transmission is a key driver of global COVID-19 spikes.

9. What has been found in the FDA documents behind the Pfizer vaccine approval?

Despite a long list of isolated adverse events among vaccine test patients, Meacham said there's nothing in the recently released FDA documents suggesting the vaccines are unsafe or ineffective.

10. Do reports that the durability of the Johnson & Johnson JNJ vaccine actually compares well to the mRNA vaccines in terms of protection from severe cases bring J&J back into the mix?

Meacham says real-world data suggesting Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine is demonstrating surprisingly strong real-world durability may be flawed, and the company's potential opportunity would likely be limited anyway by the same headwinds Novovax is facing.

Benzinga's Take: COVID-19 isn't going away, but signs that the vaccines are effective in reducing severe outcomes means the world should hopefully continue to get back to a semblance of normal.

For investors of Moderna and Pfizer, it remains to be seen just how frequently boosters will be required to protect the world and just how willing people will be to stay fully vaccinated.