Analysts Try To See Beyond Acadia's Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis

HC Wainwright says that a negative AdCom vote on Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc's ACAD perhaps marks the end of the Alzheimer's disease psychosis (ADP) story for now. 

However, looking beyond the ADP, the analysts think Acadia's pipeline still has possibilities in new indications like the Rett syndrome and for the label expansion of pimavanserin for the negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

Finally, the negative AdCom might likely result in an FDA rejection for the ADP program. Thus the analysts lowered the price target from $36 to $20.

Related: Why ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Shares Are Trading Higher Today?

Mizuho writes that Acadia has done its best to expand the label for pimavanserin beyond Parkinson's disease psychosis. Mizuho keeps its price target at $27 with a Neutral rating unchanged.

According to the analysts, the agency will likely reiterate its original request for another study, which is probably a reason for the Neutral rating. 

The stock was up 20% following the release of the briefing document; after this negative AdCom, it will likely give some of the price appreciation back. 

RBC Capital believes the stock implication is limited at current levels, given a PDP floor. The analysts are on a path to repositioning valuation, wherein the setup for ACAD remains serviceable revenue generation from Nuplazid, optionality left for pimavanserin in Schizo-NS, and a long-shot ADP.

The second drug, NDA-set trofinetide, emerged as an added leg of growth. It lowered the price target from $32 to $26 with an Outperform rating.

Price Action: ACAD shares are down 33.47% at $12.98 during the market session on the last check Tuesday.