Delayed Generic Entry Is Positive For This Large Pharma's HIV Franchise Sales, Analyst Says

Gilead Sciences Inc GILD disclosed agreements with generic manufacturers that delay the U.S. launch of generic TAF products from 2025 to 2031/2032.
SVB Leerink said this is positive for Gilead's long-term HIV sales and total revenue trajectories. TAF products, Descovy, Vemlidy, and Odefsey, generated $2.8 billion in 2021, the U.S. sales that the analyst previously expected to erode to over $100 million by 2031E.
SVB models $1.3 billion 2031E US revenue for these products based upon more modest declines vs. its prior estimates.
Related: Gilead's Lenacapavir Scores European Approval For Pretreated HIV Patients After Manufacturing Delays.
"Although we believe the products will not "cliff" mid-decade, we assume long-term erosion due to conversion to newer products (i.e., Biktarvy and Sunlenca [lenacapavir])," Our ex-US estimates remain unchanged, SVB writes.
SVB maintains the price target at $68 and a Market Perform rating and expects higher spending to offset higher long-term revenues partially.
Price Action: GILD shares are up 0.48% at $65.50 on the last check Thursday.

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