Roblox Analyst Sees Significant Downsides As Pandemic Recovery Dynamics Play Out With Additional Headwinds From China

  • Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey maintained a Sell rating for Roblox Corp RBLX with a $21 price target.
  • Hickey has reduced 3Q22 and FY22 financial estimates, as September KPIs confirmed a disappointing quarter ahead of its November 9 earnings results date. 
  • Hickey was astonished over RBLX's decision to continue elevated investment spending that should exaggerate a significantly challenging operating environment and deteriorate free cash flow. 
  • The analyst is cautioned that the pandemic pulled forward growth, and normalized behavior may dampen outlier engagement trends. 
  • The current consumer spending pressure on mobile game experiences could extend to the Roblox platform. 
  • Most children do not personally pay for their game experiences on RBLX and are, therefore, more readily open to switching games. 
  • Because parents are not directly investing in the service, they are less emotionally connected and can easily throttle back spending during rising inflation. 
  • Hickey was cautious on ambitious growth initiatives, including advertising schemes focused on children that extend beyond core gameplay and could lead to increased regulations. 
  • He thought RBLX would continue to appeal primarily to young children, and most would age out when they become teenagers. 
  • He believed many kids would embellish on their age, which can skew the average, giving a false perception that the RBLX demo is aging up. 
  • He was not convinced that RBLX offers a safe play environment. 
  • He was cautious over expense growth that now appears reckless. 
  • He believed China's growth was impaired. 
  • Price Action: RBLX shares traded higher by 2.17% at $42.33 on the last check Thursday.
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