Apple Analyst Sees iPhone Sales Tanking 20% On Black Friday Weekend As Production Hit — Woes Could Last Through Christmas

Apple Inc.’s AAPL newest iPhone iteration will be in short supply for the Black Friday holiday weekend, an analyst at Wedbush said.

The Apple Analyst: Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and $200 price target for Apple shares.

The Apple Thesis: The iPhone 14 demand is way ahead of supply, potentially causing major shortages leading into the Christmas season, Ives said in a note. The COVID-19 China shutdowns at Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Manufacturing Company Limited HNHPF have been a “gut punch” to Apple in the December quarter, the analyst said.

This has taken roughly 5% of iPhone 14 units out of the supply chain, he added.

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The analyst expects Black Friday weekend iPhone sales to be at about eight million units, down from 10 million in the year-ago period, with the gap mostly supply-driven.

"We believe by early December it will be increasingly difficult to get your hands on an iPhone 14 Pro with many delivery times likely pushed through to early January," Ives said.

If the Zhengzhou plant of Hon Hai, aka Foxconn, remains at lower capacity over the next few weeks and continues to see worker unrest build, clear major iPhone Pro shortages could result in the all-important Christmas period, especially in the U.S., he said.

The Zhengzhou situation in China remains an ongoing albatross for Apple, Ives said. The analyst, however, said his positive thesis on the demand story for Apple remains unchanged. He added that he would be a buyer of the name with the demand thesis holding firm in this economic storm.

Price Action: In premarket trading on Wednesday, Apple shares were down 0.21% at $149.87, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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