Tesla Analyst Expects Semi To Contribute 5% Of EV Maker's Revenue, Lists Limiting Factors For Production And Uptake

Tesla, Inc. TSLA began deliveries of its much-awaited electric Semi truck last week. An analyst weighed in on the impact the vehicle will likely have on Tesla’s business and its economics.

What Happened: If Tesla is able to ramp up Semi production to a 50,000-unit rate by 2024, in line with CEO Elon Musk’s projection, this newest product will likely add $10 billion in revenue in 2024, Gene Munster, co-founder of Loup Funds said in a recent note. This will likely account for 6% of Tesla’s total sales during the year, he added.

The analyst, however, said he expects a 20,000-unit rate is more likely in 2024. He premised his less optimistic expectation on the amount of lithium cells needed for the Semi, which is about five times more than what is required for a comparable Class 2-3 Tesla vehicle.

Long-term, Semi revenue will likely be around 5% of Tesla’s overall sales, he said.

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The Semi Economics: Munster noted that the average price of a Tesla Semi in the U.S. is about $140,000, which hasn’t been updated since 2017. The pricing today could be about $180,000 for the 300-mile range version and $210,000 for the 500-mile variant, he said. This is assuming a 30% premium over the Semi’s gas-powered competition, he added.

The analyst estimates U.S. gas-powered semi-truck sales of around 225,000 units in 2022, with about 7.6 million vehicles currently on the road. The average life expectancy of the vehicle is 10-15 years of use and the average miles per day is about 475 miles, the venture capitalist said.

When drivers are on the road, the average miles per day increases to 650, and therefore Tesla’s 500-mile range Semi may be inadequate for many drives until a high-speed charging network is built out, he added.

Munster estimates the annual fuel and maintenance expenses for gas-powered semi-trucks to be $110,000.

On competition, the tech specialist said, about 40% of the semi-truck market share is held by Freightliner, 15% each by Peterbilt and International, 13% by Kenworth, 11% by Volvo, 6% by Mack Trucks and 2% by Western Star.

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Photo: Courtesy of tesla.com