Shift4 Payments' End-To-End Strategy Could Continue To Fuel Faster Than Industry Growth, Analyst Says

  • Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries assumed Shift4 Payments Inc FOUR with an Overweight rating and a price target of $69.
  • Shift4 built its heritage gateway business by embedding payment acceptance technology into existing merchant software, making the continuity of said software the moat and distribution superpower for the payment business.
  • As a result, FOUR serves 200,000+ customers of all sizes across various industries: food & beverage, retail, gaming, and sports & entertainment, with over $200 billion+ of payment volume processed annually.
  • After more than a decade of building a gateway business, Shift4 has shifted its focus to making an end-to-end payments offering, combining gateway technology with software solutions. 
  • Jeffries expects this conversion of low-yield gateway payment volumes to high-yield end-to-end volumes will remain a powerful catalyst for FOUR's economics.
  • Software is the company's superpower, with 500+ technology integrations like DoorDash, Inc DASHUber Technologies, Inc UBER Uber Eats, and Sling.
  • Shift4 Payments originate over 99% of payment transactions directly from the software.
  • FOUR has seen structural tailwinds coming out of the pandemic as payments volume growth, gross revenue growth, and adjusted EBITDA growth has set the company up to outpace its pre-IPO targets significantly. 
  • Jeffries found FOUR uniquely positioned to gain market share in large, highly-fragmented verticals due to the company's experience solving complex payments and software problems with existing merchant systems. 
  • Acknowledging that persistently high inflation could cause headwinds to discretionary spending, the analyst believes FOUR's potential to shift low-yield gateway customers to end-to-end agreements could drive continued faster-than-market growth.
  • Price Action: FOUR shares traded higher by 4.89% at $56.06 on the last check Thursday.
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