Dell's Higher Notebook Mix, Focus On ASP, Storage Business Steadiness, Higher Contribution From Software & Services Likely To Bode Well: Analyst

  • Credit Suisse analyst Shannon Cross had an Outperform rating on Dell Technologies Inc DELL with a $50.00 price target.
  • Last week at CES, Cross met with Zak Broderick and Paul Frantz of the Dell IR team for an update on the business. 
  • The analyst made no changes to estimates or target price. 
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty magnified difficulty in forecasting demand levels in F2024, with management assessing a wide range of outcomes. This led to the company guiding estimates down 10% to down 12% for F2024 during its November 21 earnings call. 
  • While PC demand has weakened, the company believes the installed base was fundamentally reset during the pandemic with a higher mix of notebooks (which have shorter lives) and higher value devices (needed for productivity). 
  • The analyst expects a continued focus on growing ASPs (rather than units) and keeping margins above pre-2020 levels of 4-5%. 
  • The storage business is executing well and benefitting from a streamlined and refreshed portfolio. 
  • Higher software and services content is resulting in more deferred revenue, which is now beginning to be recognized as revenue. Dell believes it is gaining share.
  • Cash flow will likely be under pressure from PC weakness, but there is some opportunity to reduce inventory. 
  • Dell maintains its commitment to return cash to shareholders (dividend and share repurchase) while continuing to assess M&A opportunities (assuming tuck-ins targeting growth areas including telco and edge computing). 
  • Also Read: Dell Eyes Reducing Dependence On China - India, Latin America Likely To Be Beneficiaries, Analysts Say
  • Price Action: DELL shares traded higher by 0.88% at $42.795 on the last check Monday.
  • Photo Via Company
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