Analyst Views Novo Nordisk's Upcoming Obesity Drug Data To Lay Grounds For Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide

Cantor Fitzgerald published around 40-page deep dive ahead of Novo Nordisk A/S's NVO SELECT CV outcomes study, which is guided to complete in ~mid-2023.
In large-cap land, there two two obesity leaders — Eli Lilly And Co LLY and Novo Nordisk. Other players include Amgen Inc AMGN, Pfizer Inc PFE, and possibly Novartis AG NVS.
Based on diligence, there is a strong likelihood that SELECT will read out positively on its primary composite endpoint (HR of at least ~17%) that could be a key trigger point in unlocking what could amount to a ~$50-55 billion market in 2030E for obesity drugs.
Among other factors, this assumes that GLP-1-based therapies in obesity can achieve ~50% reimbursement overall (~80% commercial), which is above the ~30% coverage Novo is currently at with Wegovy.
According to EvaluatePharma, 2028E sales for the total obesity market are currently forecasted at ~$14.9 billion, dominated in the near to medium term by NVO's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, which could be approved as early as late 2023.
The analyst writes that details from the SELECT data could also provide helpful read-throughs to tirzepatide's ongoing trials. Therefore, it reiterates Eli Lilly stock's Overweight rating and $432 price target.
Price Action: LLY shares are down 0.14% at $351.53, and NVO shares are up 0.04% at $139.82 on the last check Thursday.
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