Why This Pfizer Analyst Is No Longer Bullish On The COVID Stock

Pfizer Inc. PFE could see headwinds in 2023 due to declining COVID-19 cases, according to a UBS analyst. 

The Pfizer Analyst: Colin Bristow downgraded Pfizer from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price target from $55 to $47.

The primary drivers for this move are the decreasing estimates for the COVID franchise (Paxlovid/Comirnaty) and a lack of conviction in the potential growth out of the 2023 COVID trough, Bristow said in a Thursday downgrade note.

Additionally, while Pfizer's pipeline has a number of shots on goal, the late-stage assets are already included in Street estimates, the analyst said, and it is too premature to assign value to the earlier stage assets.

The company's COVID franchise estimates need to come down, driven by declining/stabilizing COVID case counts and decreasing severity of variants, he said. 

On the pipeline side, the analyst said he reviewed estimates but did not make any meaningful changes.

Pfizer has approximately $16-$18 billion in revenue exposed to loss-of-exclusivity between 2025-2030, Bristow said. The analyst models three- and five-year top-line CAGRs of negative 11% and negative 8%, respectively, while consensus estimates are at negative 12% and negative 8%.

The UBS downgrade is the most recent in a run of rating adjustments after Bank of America and Wells Fargo also downgraded the pharma giant this month.

PFE Price Action: Shares of Pfizer lost 0.92% Thursday, closing at $44.25, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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