What 6 Shopify Analysts Are Saying About Q4 Results, Q1 Guidance

Shares of Shopify Inc SHOP plummeted in premarket trading and are still down with a disappointing outlook.

KeyBanc Capital Markets on Shopify

Analyst Josh Beck maintained an Overweight rating and price target of $55.

“Shopify topped expectations across the board and outlined a 1Q revenue guidance of high-teens (vs. Street at ~21%),” Beck said in a note. Although management did not project this, “our interpretation of opex and gross margin comments suggests an EBIT level below the Street of -$40M,” he added.

Piper Sandler on Shopify

Analyst Clarke Jeffries reiterated a Neutral rating while raising the price target from $36 to $45.

“Even excluding Deliver, we estimate revenue growth at Shopify likely improved back to >20% organic growth while netting a non-GAAP operating profit,” Jeffries wrote in a note.

“However, investors may harbor concerns related to 1Q23 guidance, which calls for high-teens y/y revenue growth and low single digit q/q growth in operating expenses,” the analyst stated. “This implies a deceleration back to mid-teens organic y/y growth with an operating loss (our est: -$103M, -7%),” he added.

Raymond James on Shopify

Analyst Brian Peterson reaffirmed a Market Perform rating on the stock.

The company’s fourth-quarter results were broadly higher than expectations and “showed impressive upside to both GMV and margins,” Peterson said.

“We’re encouraged that management’s guidance philosophy includes more quantitative disclosure, though the initial 1Q23 expectations were below expectations embedded in the 54% move in shares YTD,” he added.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

RBC Capital Markets on Shopify

Analyst Paul Treiber maintained an Outperform rating while raising the price target from $55 to $65.

Shopify’s fourth-quarter results were “solid,” and the company delivered the “largest quarterly revenue beat in the last 6 quarters,” Treiber wrote in a note. “The quarter showed market share gains, take rate expansion, MRR growth and operating leverage — all elements of our long-term positive thesis on Shopify,” he added.

“While Q1 guidance below consensus is negative, Shopify’s execution increases our confidence in the company’s ability to navigate through most macro scenarios,” the analyst further mentioned.

Benchmark on Shopify

Analyst Mark Zgutowicz reiterated a Hold rating on the stock.

“Despite SHOP’s better-than-expected 4Q GMV (bolstered via Offline GMV growing +25% y/y), we continue to assess limited visibility into both fundamentals and capital allocation priorities,” Zgutowicz said.

“Notably, SHOP’s directional curtailing of fulfillment-related capex spend (in our view based on 1Q guidance) suggests the potential for a reduction to its previous $1B in aggregated capex across ’23-‘24E,” he added.

JMP Securities on Shopify

Analyst Andrew Boone maintained a Market Perform rating.

“GMV growth accelerated ~220 bps to +13% Y/Y (+17% Y/Y ex-EX) as GMV came in 5% ahead of consensus,” Boone wrote. “Total take rate expanded 30bps Y/Y to 2.85% as Shopify continues to drive more value for merchants,” he added.

The analyst mentioned, however, that the first-quarter guidance of “high-teens” growth “represents a meaningful deceleration from 26% Y/Y in 4Q22.”

SHOP Price Action: Shares of Shopify declined by 16.07% to $44.64 Thursday morning at publication.

Read Next: Why Shopify Stock Is Sliding Today

Photo: Public Domain via Flicker Creative Commons