This Cannabis Company Will Likely Beat Q4 Estimates Says Analyst

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Trulieve Cannabis Corp. TCNNF TRUL will release its fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results on March 8, 2023.

Recent Activity

Launched SLANG Worldwide Inc.’s SLGWF vape brand and O.pen in West Virginia. O.pen products will be sold in Trulieve's nine West Virginia retail shops and through its wholesale network of 40 dispensaries throughout the state, with this number continuing to grow as demand builds.

Started adult-use cannabis sales at its hybrid (medical and adult-use) dispensary in Bristol, Connecticut, and recently relocated to 820 Farmington Ave.

Launched Highsman in Arizona, which is a cannabis lifestyle brand founded by NFL legend Ricky Williams. Highsman is available statewide in all Trulieve and Harvest branded Arizona retail locations.

The Analyst

Updating its model ahead of Q4 financial results, Cantor Fitzgerald's Pablo Zuanic maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on Trulieve’s stock, reducing the price target from $51 to $41.

The Thesis

The analyst lowered the price target to address sectoral derating.

Zuanic estimates that Florida accounts for more than 60% of Trulieve sales, while Arizona is about 20%. Florida Q3 was affected by hurricanes. Trulieve opened its 20th store in Arizona in October and as per Headset total market sales were up 2% sequentially in Q4 in Arizona.

“In short, we believe a beat is likely; we model ~$314 million in sales. Right, not a significant beat, but a decent beat given the context. In terms of the year ahead, we understand the focus is on efficiencies and cash flows. We believe the next big catalyst for the stock is the momentum on rec making it to the 2024 ballot,” said Zuanic who is a speaker at April’s Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference in Miami.

The Price Action

Trulieve shares were trading 1.11% higher at $6.57 per share at the time of this writing late Monday morning.

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Photo by Tim Foster on Unsplash

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