Analysts Cheer Nuvei Post Upbeat Q4; 20%+ Ex-Crypto Organic Growth Validates Its Moats And Market Share Gains

  • Credit Suisse analyst Timothy Chiodo upgrades Nuvei Corp NVEI from Neutral to Outperform and raises the price target from $37 to $45.
  • Strong Q4 ex-crypto, FY 2023 guided ahead of the analyst's prior estimates, and an updated medium-term framework suggests profitable compounding ahead.
  • The analyst downgraded the stock in mid-2022 ahead of what he expected to be a challenging 2H 2022, given digital assets & cryptocurrency and other mix-related headwinds.
  • While compares remain challenging for Q1 & Q2, revenue will likely accelerate throughout the year on an organic basis, and there is a line of sight to a more normalized growth rate. 
  • Nuvei represents a share-gaining, eCommerce/CNP-focused, profitable, now more diversified, initial FY 2023 guidance now de-risked.
  • RBC Capital analyst Paul Treiber reiterates Nuvei with an Outperform and a $50 price target.
  • Nuvei's Q4 and FY23 revenue guidance were solid, showing strong 20%+ ex-crypto constant currency organic growth. 
  • The analyst believes 20% + ex-crypto organic growth validates Nuvei's competitive advantages and market share gains. 
  • While the macro environment remains uncertain, strong ex-crypto growth improves his confidence that Nuvei's growth will accelerate through 2023. 
  • Raymond James analyst John Davis maintains Nuvei with an Outperform and raises the price target from $40 to $49.
  • The re-rating reflects solid 4Q results with an upside to all key metrics and initial 2023 guidance that was largely as expected.
  • Davis suspects some conservatism embedded in the outlook and believes estimates are biased higher after a volatile 2022. 
  • The analyst thinks 2023 will be a crucial turning point where revenue and earnings quality improve as crypto headwinds dissipate in 2H23, it integrates Paya, and other verticals experience growth. 
  • Price Action: NVEI shares traded higher by 8.34% at $39.45 on the last check Thursday.
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