What To Expect When Merus Presents Petosemtamab Data Update At AACR

Merus N.V. MRUS will highlight interim clinical data on the bispecific antibody petosemtamab (MCLA-158) in previously treated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) along with the selection of a second abstract on petosemtamab in advanced gastric/esophageal adenocarcinoma at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) on April 14-19, 2023.
The management recently commented that it is looking for a roughly/a little better ORR than double the 13% for Eli Lilly And Co's LLY Erbitux (cetuximab) as meaningfully better.
Needham analyst says that based on recent conversations with investors, expectations are for an ORR of ~30%.
At the 2021 Triple meeting data update, the analyst saw 43% ORR for Peto in 7 patients. This response rate is encouraging relative to Merck & Co Inc's MRK Keytruda (16% ORR) or what cetuximab demonstrated in a Phase 2 trial (13%).
However, the 2021 data was very preliminary, and none of the patients had received prior cetuximab treatment.
The analyst expects Peto's peak revenue opportunity could be significant and estimates >$1 billion by 2030 in the U.S. (~90k patients w/ Peto getting ~15% market share).
A positive data update should drive a double-digit upside to the stock.
Needham holds a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $33.00.
Price Action: MRUS shares are down 1.29% at $18.36 on the last check Thursday.