Despite Capacity Constraints, Delta Air Lines' 2Q Guidance Impresses Morgan Stanley Analyst

  • Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares of Delta Air Lines Inc DAL and raised the price target from $65 to $70.
  • The analyst said that the company's 1Q was a slight miss, but 2Q guidance came in comfortably above consensus.
  • Revenue came in toward the low end of expectations due to capacity constraints and lower materialization rates throughout the quarter.
  • Delta, having re-affirmed 1Q guidance in March, reported at the mid-point of the guidance range while the street was expecting the higher end.
  • Capacity is expected to come in a couple points below management's initial plan as they focus on operational reliability this summer, which makes the revenue guidance even more impressive, said the analyst.
  • The management, the analyst said, saw strong consumer demand "across the board" which is expected to carry through the summer season.
  • The analyst sees FY23 guidance to be conservative, given the commentary around demand, 2Q booking trends, jet fuel, and CASMxF improvement.
  • The analyst believes the next long-term target could be $10 EPS in three years.
  • While the market clearly has broad macro concerns, DAL's gross liquidity, recently practiced recession playbook, strong franchise/management team and 3:1 risk reward make the stock extremely compelling amongst cyclicals, in the analyst's view, irrespective of macro conditions.
  • Price Action: DAL shares are trading higher by 0.84% at $33.65 on the last check Friday.
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