Alibaba's Latest Makeover: Analyst Forecasts Growth and Value Unlock in BABA's Bold Restructuring

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  • Truist analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Buy rating on Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA with a price target of $130.
  • The analyst expects BABA's 4Q FY23 results to be slightly ahead of expectations, reflecting improving operational execution and a recovering economy following the Chinese New Year. 
  • The NBS Online Retail Sales data shows an improving trend throughout 4Q and vs. 3Q. 
  • He believes BABA's transformation into a holding company should increase transparency and accountability, boost competitiveness and unlock shareholder value. 
  • The new holding company structure is Alibaba's most significant structural change ever; it aimed at making the separate businesses more agile and competitive, allowing them direct access to outside capital and, most importantly, unlocking value for a stock that's trailed for the last two years.
  • Wide application of Alibaba's generative AI model should drive operational improvements and growth. 
  • A less hostile regulatory environment in China and prospects for several business units to IPO in the next 12-18 months bode well for BABA shares. He expects critical applications of Tongyi Qianwen in BABA's e-commerce, cloud computing, logistics, entertainment, and social media platforms to drive product improvement and demand generation.
  • Price Action: BABA shares traded higher by 2.65% at $87.60 on the last check Monday.
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