PROG Holdings Faces Downgrade Amid Concerns Over Declining Gross Merchandise Volume

Loop Capital Markets analyst Anthony Chukumba downgraded PROG Holdings, Inc. PRG to Hold from a Buy Rating, with a price target of $34.
The analyst remains worried about near-term gross merchandise volume (GMV) (which dropped 17.0% YoY in 1Q 2023).
The analyst cautions about the dramatic pandemic-driven demand pull-forwards in furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics—three of PROG Holdings' largest product categories.
The analyst also flags that he has not seen any tangible signs of consumers "trading down" to lease-to-own, or LTO (which would benefit PROG Holdings) due to subprime credit drying up, as usually occurs when the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop becomes more challenging.
PROG will also likely face macroeconomic pressures on the company's core low-income customer base, which could result in lower revenues and increased merchandise write-offs.
The analyst believes that GMV trends must improve materially for investors to revalue the stock.
Price Action: PRG shares are trading lower by 3.60% to $32.93 on the last check Monday.

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