An Era Of Massive Growth Or Extinction? Economist Forecasts 50/50 Odds Of AI Leading To Complete Human Eradication By 2050

Humanity’s survival in the face of artificial intelligence (AI) progress hangs precariously in the balance, with odds no better than a coin flip, warns Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.

In a publication titled “ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law,” the world’s largest provider of independent global macro research has asserted that the probability of AI eradicating humanity by the middle of the century surpasses a mere 50/50 chance.

The crucial question is, “Will we be able to successfully navigate the transition to superintelligence?” Unfortunately, according to BCA Research the odds look to be stacked against us.

One of the key concerns motivating BCA Research’s catastrophic forecasts arises from the goals we establish for AI tools. Every AI system requires a defined goal to pursue, as without it, the system would lack direction in utilizing its resources. In the case of ChatGPT, users input the desired goal as a prompt. However, with more advanced AI platforms like AutoGPT, the goals could become more open-ended, raising higher risks.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics says that destruction is easier than creation. Whether unintentional or intentional (such as when AutoGPT was instructed to destroy the world) averting annihilation remains a challenging prospect, according to BCA Research.

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Can AI stop AI Before It’s Too Late?

The belief that a highly intelligent AI will have the ability to predict and correct potentially disastrous situations before they occur may be considered wishful thinking, according to Berezin.

Stephen Wolfram, a prominent advocate in this field, introduces the notion of computational irreducibility, asserting that most complex systems require step-by-step advancement to reliably anticipate their future behavior. As a result, even a superintelligent AI may not be able to anticipate its own acts until they are carried out.

Prosperity Will Fall Like Rain, If We Survive…

According to BCA Research, if humanity successfully navigates the transition to superintelligent AI, the resulting growth impact might be comparable to the disruptive periods of the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. These previous revolutions saw a spectacular 30-to-100 fold rise in global growth as compared to the prior era, showing the potential for comparable revolutionary advances in the future.

“New technologies and new industries will proliferate. Problems that once seemed intractable, such as how to stop and reverse aging, could be solved overnight,” BCA Research wrote.

How To Invest In The Artificial Intelligence Era?

BCA Research also gave predictions on the best investment to own during the AI revolution:

1. Tech stocks will grow less than the rest of the market: The AI revolution’s impact on tech stocks, although significant, might pale in comparison to its effect on overall growth. Rapid technological change may render existing tech obsolete, leaving many companies in the dust.
2. Interest rates are projected to skyrocket: Standard economic theory suggests that faster economic growth will raise the real neutral rate of interest.
3. Commodities and real estate are the biggest winners: Increased availability of labor and capital will raise the value of other production inputs, such as natural resources. “People will scramble to buy land with their newfound riches, only to discover that it is the one thing that AI cannot produce more of,” Berezin said.

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