Key Data On Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Drug Wegovy Due In July: Biotech Analyst Details Likely Impact On Lilly's Stock

Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk A/S NVO is due to announce results from a late-stage trial, dubbed SELECT, that evaluates its semaglutide, sold under the brand name Wegovy, for the reduction of cardiovascular events in overweight or obese non-diabetic patients with prior cardiovascular disease.

An analyst shared his views Wednesday on the likely outcome of the trial and the impact it could have on the shares of the company and Eli Lilly & Co. LLY, which has a competing offering.

What To Expect: The SELECT Phase 3 trial will read out between July 1 and Aug. 1, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman said in a note.

"A readout validating benefit beyond and/or independent of weight loss (in this case, CV-related comorbidities) could broaden the patient population, bolster US reimbursement above the ~40M currently covered, and extend duration of treatment beyond duration of weight loss," he said.

The analyst said he expects the space to evolve, driven by "differentiation in outcomes data.” This, according to the analyst, will be proportional to Lilly's Mounjaro's superior efficacy and tolerability with respect to Wegovy/Ozempic. The three scenarios the analyst expects are:

Homerun Readout – Possible But Unlikely: Lilly shares will trade up to 5%-10% on a SELECT trial readout that shows more than 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events, or MACE, and a 30% reduction in cardiovascular death, the analyst said.

Uncompelling Readout – Most Likely: The analyst sees a 15%-19% reduction in MACE and statistical significance in CV death. A flattish to 5% gain likely for Lilly shares under this scenario, he said.

Failure – Unlikely:  The failure of the trial will result in a 5% drop in Lilly shares, the analyst said.

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Why It's Important: Wegovy injections, in a 2.4-mg weekly dosing, were first approved in 2021 as the first prescription anti-obesity medication for teens.

Wegovy's sister drug Ozempic, also chemically semaglutide, was first approved in 2017 as a treatment option for Type 1 diabetes (0.5mg or 1 mg). It subsequently snagged two more approvals, for cardiovascular risk reduction in adults with Type 2 diabetes in 2020 and a higher dosage (2mg) for increased glycemic control for adults with Type 2 diabetes in 2022.

Ozempic is being prescribed off-label for weight loss. It is promoted widely through TikTok, drawing young people to it. This in turn has created a shortage for this diabetes drug.

Novo Nordisk, Lilly Price Action: At last check, Novo Nordisk shares were down 1.07% to $159.90 and Lilly shares were 0.47% higher to $453.85, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Read Next: Is Ozempic Right For Your Weight-Loss Goals? – Forbes

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