Cheniere Energy's Debt Maturity Deliberations: Analyst Predicts Possible Approaches Amid Interest Rate Hikes

Mizuho analyst Robert Mosca reiterated a Buy rating on the shares of Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG, lowering the price target to $187 from $200.

LNG has ~$5.5 billion of debt maturing in 2024/2025 ($2 billion & $3.5 billion, respectively), meaning there will be some deliberation on how to approach incremental debt paydown versus refinancing in a higher interest rate environment.

Cheniere has underperformed over the past three months (+1.4% vs. AMEI: +5.1%), attributable to international gas arb compression and revised expectations for near-term marketing torque. 

The analyst believes LNG's underperformance is tough to reconcile since he estimates a ~$2/mmbtu decline in Cheniere Marketing International or CMI marketing margins.

Based on the above, the analyst lowered FY24 adj EBITDA estimates by $927 million to $6.5 billion.

Adj EBITDA estimates for FY25 have been reduced by $408 million to $6.3 billion.

The analyst forecasts $600 million of additional gross debt paydown in 2Q23-4Q23 ahead of LNG's '24 maturity and ~$1.5 billion/yr of gross debt paydown in '24, early of LNG's '25 maturities.

Price Action: LNG shares are trading down by 0.89% to $148.81 on the last check Thursday.