Tesla A Bull Run Or Bull Trap? Why This Analyst Is Bracing For Significant Stock Volatility Near Term

Zinger Key Points
  • Tesla has had some real wins and the valuation has taken off like a kite, says Craig Irwin.
  • The analyst is of the view a lot of investors trade as momentum investors and are in this stock and correctly selling into strength.

Tesla, Inc. TSLA has polarized the investment community and analysts, especially due to the recent surge in the stock price. An analyst at Roth Capital Partners believes the stock is “egregiously overvalued.”

What Happened: Analyst Craig Irwin, in an interview with Yahoo Finance last week, stated that after hitting a low point at the end of last year, Tesla stock has performed remarkably well this year. He attributes the stock rally to the sell side’s excitement about the company’s price cuts and the widespread adoption of its North American Charging Standard (NACS) by leading OEMs.

"So they’ve had some real wins and the valuation has taken off like a kite," the analyst said, calling the move from $100 to over $250 a "reactionary move."

See Also: Everything You Need To Know About Tesla Stock

While he acknowledged Tesla as a great company that has played a significant role in transforming transportation, he points out the increasing competition from traditional automakers like Ford Motor Co. F and General Motors Corp. GM. With numerous electric vehicles entering the market, Tesla may face challenges in maintaining its growth and margins.

The analyst also highlighted a weak demand environment, noting that Tesla had to aggressively cut prices to stimulate demand. 

Charging Boost: Irwin credited Tesla for its dominance in the NACS market, mainly due to its Supercharging network. However, he mentioned potential concerns about Tesla users having to wait behind other vehicle brands to charge, which may impact the Tesla brand but still result in profits.

“But I look at Tesla, I’d say it’s egregiously overvalued. But man, what a fantastic pioneer to drive this industry forward,” Irwin said. 

Bull Run Or Trap? Tesla is definitely not a value trap but it may be a bull trap, Irwin said.

"A lot of investors trade as momentum investors and are in this stock and correctly selling into strength in my opinion, you know, and then buying on weakness," he said. 

Irwin says investors are concerned about the battery source for the rear-wheel drive Model 3 car, Tesla's highest-volume car, coming from China and also the competition.

"And as this evidence comes out, you can expect some significant volatility in the stock…And we’re cautious," the analyst said.

"We think we think people should be aware that that’s a significant possibility over the next number of months."

Price Action: Tesla ended Monday’s session up 6.90% at $279.82, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Read Next: Tesla Analyst Expects Cybertruck To Drive Explosive Growth: ‘Shorts Really Don’t Get How Important..’

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