Glaukos Poised To Surpass Expectations And Raise Outlook In Q2 FY23, Fueled By iStent And iAccess Launches: Analyst

Needham expects Glaukos Corp GKOS to surpass expectations and raise outlook in Q2 FY23, fueled by rebounding iStent inject volumes post-2022 reimbursement-driven declines. An additional upside is expected from the accelerating iAccess and iPRIME launches.

Needham reiterates the Buy rating and raises the price target to $89 from $67.

Guidance is conservative, says the analyst, which should allow for upside to estimates. The analyst previously estimated Glaukos could do ~$305-$310 million in 2023 vs. current guidance of $295-300 million.

The company could see increasing iStent infinite momentum before favorable ASC facility fee changes are set to take effect in 2024. 

GKOS faced an opposite dynamic in 2H21 ahead of unfavorable 2022 reimbursement changes.

In 2024, Sight Sciences Inc SGHT and New World Medical (private) are estimated to perform 114K and 71K procedures, respectively, with approximately 15% of SGHT's cases being standalone. 

Considering GKOS's loss of 38% of procedures in 2022 due to unfavorable iStent inject physician fees, a similar shift of 38% of canaloplasty and goniotomy procedures to iStent infinite is anticipated with a favorable ASC fee. 

With a $1,650 iStent infinite ASP, these changes could potentially drive $10 million in revenue to GKOS in 2024, contributing a significant 350 bps to growth. 

Price Action: GKOS shares are down 2.26% at $76.98 on the last check Wednesday.