Is Starbucks Too Dependent On China? 5 Analyst Takeaways On Mixed Q3 Print, Outlook

Shares of Starbucks Corp SBUX rose in early trading on Wednesday, after the company reported mixed fiscal third-quarter (Q3) results.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the earnings release.

• Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan maintained a Neutral rating, while reducing the price target from $112 to $105.
• Stephens analyst Joshua Long reiterated an Equal-Weight rating and price target of $110.
• TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles reaffirmed an Outperform rating and price target of $117.
• Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner maintained a Perform rating on the stock.
• William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Wedbush: Starbucks reported its fiscal third quarter earnings ahead of expectations on “higher margins and continued China recovery even as U.S. SSS growth came in softer than consensus,” Setyan wrote.

“Management now expects to achieve 16-17% earnings growth in FY23 (vs. prev. guide at the low-end of 15-20% range),” the analyst said. “We continue to view sales leverage, pricing, the realization of SBUX' reinvention plan benefits, and some easing of inflationary pressures as near-term drivers."

Stephens: Starbucks reported “generally strong” results, including continued revenue momentum in the US and China, margin expansion, and “largely reiterated guidance,” Long said.

“Near term, we are impressed with the company's ability to drive (and service) global consumer demand while continuing to optimize operations,” he added.

TD Cowen: “We're pleased SBUX raised 2023 EPS guidance to $3.43-$3.46 from $3.40 amid 4Q China comps,” Charles wrote.

“We believe Starbucks is pursuing the right structural drivers including on-trend iced and plant-based beverages, broadening payment options beyond a Starbucks gift card for customers to join the My Starbucks Rewards loyalty program and making digital ordering more frictionless,” the analyst said. “This should help Starbucks extend the sales recovery and gives us confidence in potential upside to comps."

Oppenheimer: “SBUX's 3Q23 update was headlined by a reiteration (and tightening) of 2023 EPS guidance, despite a $0.05 3Q EPS beat that was primarily tax-driven,” Bittner wrote in a note. He added that the company reiterated its guidance despite US same store sales trending below expectations.

“We anticipate the business update will cause '23/'24 consensus estimates to barely budge,” the analyst stated. “But, it also creates questions on whether domestic comps decelerate further and/or if 2024 EPS estimates are tilting aggressively,” he added.

William Blair: Starbucks’ earnings beat was achieved on “better-than-expected margins across all three segments alongside lower-than-expected corporate G&A versus our model."

“Consolidated comps rose 10%, inclusive of a 7% comp gain in North America as unit volumes outpaced pre-pandemic levels by double digits,” the analyst wrote. “International comps rose 24% on a 46% comp in China and double-digit comps in all other major international markets,” he added

SBUX Price Action: Shares of Starbucks had risen by 2.63% to $103.93 at the time of publication Wednesday.

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