Paul Krugman Draws Insights From WWII's Longest Campaign In Russia-Ukraine Conflict Analysis: 'Will There Be A Similar Tipping Point ...?'

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman weighed in on the long-drawn battle between Russia and Ukraine and how it will potentially end.

What Happened: The Russia-Ukraine war will be determined more by brains and open-mindedness than by tough-guy posturing, Krugman said in a New York Time op-ed piece published on Tuesday.

The economist noted that military historian Phillips P. O'Brien was among the few analysts who disagreed with the consensus that Russia would quickly and easily conquer its smaller neighbor. O'Brien is of the view that Ukraine's counteroffensive will eventually succeed, he said.

Krugman noted that Ukraine went with the tactics of undertaking small-scale infantry attacks that gain at most a few hundred yards at a time. Earlier when they attempted to punch a hole in Russia's defense lines and then raced for the coast, they failed because they ran into a dense minefield and withering artillery fire, he added.

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Tipping Point Near? Krugman sees similarities with the Battle of the Atlantic. The Battle of the Atlantic is the longest continuous military campaign in World War II that ran between 1939 and 1945 and culminated in the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The artillery attacks by Ukraine force the Russians to respond, exposing their artillery systems to attack by Ukraine, which used a combination of superior Western technology and local ingenuity.

“If the optimists are right, the real story is the gradual degradation of the stuff behind Russia's lines — counter-battery radar, artillery pieces, command centers and so on,” Krugman said.

The economist suggested the final part of the play could be sudden just like the Battle of the Atlantic, when the Allies gradually gained the upper hand over many months before a "sudden surge in U-boat losses forced the Germans to abandon their attacks."

He wondered whether there could be similar tipping point in Ukraine.

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