Analyst Boost H&R Block Price Target But Still Cautious On Long-Term Growth: Here's Why

A couple of analysts boosted the price target of H&R Block Inc HRB following Q4 FY23 results yesterday.

H&R Block reported quarterly earnings of $2.05 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.89, and sales of $1.03 billion beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.01 billion.

The company expects FY24 revenues of $3.530 billion -$3.585 billion vs. consensus of $3.56 billion, EBITDA of $930 million-$965 million, and adjusted EPS of $4.10-$4.30 vs consensus of $4.01.

Barrington Research analyst Alexander Paris Jr raised the price target to $44 from $42 and maintained an Outperform rating.

The analyst revised estimates for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS to $3.558 billion (from $3.590 billion), $948.2 million (from $962.0 million), and $4.20 (from $4.15) for FY24.

The analyst expects revenue of $3.665 billion, EBITDA of $990.4 million, and adjusted EPS of $4.65 for FY25.

Goldman Sachs analyst George K. Tong reiterated a Sell rating but upped the price target to $32 from $28.

The analyst is cautious on H&R Block given share loss in the core assisted tax prep category, mainly low-income EITC filers, and muted FY24 guidance.

Also, the analyst thinks management’s target of maintaining market share in the assisted category next year can prove to be a stretch due to its history of market share loss in the category (inclusive of the 2023 tax season).

Tong notes HRB's FY24 revenue guidance of 2%-3% growth is below its long-term target of 3%-6% growth, despite benefits from the CA tax filing deadline extension and no unusual industry headwinds, which dampens his confidence in the long-term growth target.

The analyst expects revenue of $3.540 billion in FY24 and $3.597 billion in FY25, and $3.651 billion in FY26.

Price Action: HRB shares are trading higher by 9% at $38.56 on the last check Wednesday.