Is Legal Recreational Cannabis Wrecking Medical Marijuana Sales? Analyst Crunches The Numbers

The introduction of recreational cannabis sales has brought about significant shifts in the medical marijuana (MMJ) landscape across several states, impacting sales and patient counts.

In many states, MMJ sales have experienced double-digit declines following the onset of recreational sales.

Illinois has been an exception, maintaining stable medical sales even amidst recreational legalization. The influence of this transition is contingent on factors such as the strength of the recreational market, product variety and pricing.

“For the most part, our read is that, typically, ahead of rec legalization, one-third to half of the med is what we would call 'pseudo rec.' The actual impact will be a function of the strength of the rec market (access, assortment, prices), and of how developed the med market was before the start of rec sales," writes Pablo Zuanic from Zuanic & Associates in a recent analyst note.

Meet Pablo Zuanic in person at the upcoming Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference in Chicago on Sept 27-28. He is brimming with knowledge of market trends and investing advice.

Recreational Cannabis Takes A Toll On Medical Sales In Arizona, Missouri And More

• According to Zuanic & Associates, Michigan saw an 80% decline in medical sales from its peak, with monthly sales dropping from $29 million to $6.1 million.
• In Arizona, the medical patient count decreased by 57% over 2.5 years, with July 2023 sales amounting to $28 million, down from a $65 million peak.
• New Jersey witnessed a 40% drop in medical sales over a year, from $59 million in 4Q21 to $34.5 million in 1Q23.
• Missouri, Massachusetts and New Mexico experienced declines of 39%, 33%, and over 10% in their medical cannabis markets, respectively.
• However, some states like Illinois and Connecticut managed to sustain their medical cannabis sales, Zuanic pointed out, due to factors such as low dispensary counts for recreational sales.

Meet Pablo Zuanic from Z&A and ask him for expert advice on market trends. He'll be at the upcoming Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference, the place where deals get done, which is returning to Chicago this Sept 27-28 for its 17th edition. 

Get your tickets today before prices increase and secure a spot at the epicenter of cannabis investment and branding.

Photo by Jordan McDonald on Unsplash.