Apple Has 'Flex The Muscles Moment' With iPhone 15, Expects 'Mini Supercycle' To Propel Shares Forward

Zinger Key Points
  • Analyst Daniel Ives shares his initial reactions to Apple's event, which debuts its new iPhone 15.
  • The analyst sees many choosing to upgrade their phones that haven't in the past four years.

A leading Apple Inc AAPL analyst broke down the key takeaways from Tuesday’s company event that highlighted upcoming product launches such as the iPhone 15.

The Apple Analyst: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives had an Outperform rating on Apple and a price target of $230.

Related Link: iPhone 15 Vs. iPhone 14: The Seven Biggest Changes And One Surprise

The Analyst Takeaways: On Tuesday, Apple unveiled the highly anticipated iPhone 15, with several models and price points to come, with preorders starting on Friday, Sept. 15.

“iPhone 15 flex the muscles moment for Cupertino,” Ives said in an updated note Tuesday.

The analyst said the iPhone was the main event, but the Apple Watch highlights at the event were important as it had “transformed to a meaningful product segment for Apple.”

“The iPhone 15 launch comes off the heels as Apple further penetrates its large ecosystem and we also believe ASPs are bumping up towards a roughly $900/$925 with a heavier Pro mix shift for the iPhone 15 setting up a new ‘mini supercycle’ despite the uncertain macro and China worries.”

Ives said the pricing by Apple for the iPhone 15 models was a bit of a surprise.

“In a surprise move for pricing the iPhone 15 Pro will be $999 which is unchanged from last year with NO price increase but the iPhone 15 Pro Max will start at $1,199 (up $100 from the 14 Pro Max) which we view as a smart strategic move with the enhanced technology, A17 chip, and battery technology.”

Estimates from Ives see Apple selling around 85 million iPhone 15 units “out of the gates,” which would be flat to slightly up from the iPhone 14 launch.

“We also expect a heavy iPhone Pro mix shift for iPhone 15.”

Ives saw a demand story for Apple with an estimate that around 250 million of the 1.2 billion iPhone users worldwide have not upgraded their phones in over four years and that more people may upgrade to the Pro Max model because of the camera.

“We also believe Apple is expecting further iPhone Pro and Pro Max mix shift which is a clear positive for ASPs heading into FY24.”

Ives echoed his bullishness during an appearance on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” Tuesday.

The analyst said Apple’s flex the muscles move and the price increases showed “more pricing power” and potential market share gains down the road.

The analyst expected Apple to see mid-single digit unit growth for the iPhone 15 and average sale prices growing.

“That’s the perfect combination which is why we believe when we sit here a year from now, Apple is toward $3.5 trillion not the opposite”

AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were down 1.71% to $176.30 on Tuesday at market close versus a 52-week trading range of $124.17 to $198.23. Shares of Apple are up 43% year-to-date in 2023. Based on Ives' price target, Apple shares could rise 31% in the next 12 months.

Read Next: Apple Wonderlust Event Puts iPhone 15 Suppliers, Competitors In The Spotlight: 8 Stocks To Watch 

Photo: Shuttestock

 

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