Costco's High Member Loyalty Is A Win: Analyst Keeps Company In 'Outperform' Lane

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation COST with an unchanged price target of $575.

Costco will report 4Q FY23 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023.

The analyst projects EPS growth of 19% to $5.00 versus the FactSet consensus (FS) of $4.79, including a benefit from an extra week.

Sales growth is estimated to be 8.9% to $77.1 billion versus FS at $76.4 billion, with a headline comparable sales of 1.1% and a benefit from an extra week of about 6.0%.

The analyst expects generally inline MFI (Membership Fee Income) growth of 12% to $1.5 billion, reflecting solid member growth of MSD (Mid-Single Digit), helped by new members and renewals as well as benefits from the extra week in the MSD area.

The analyst expects Costco to remain a share gainer, with its value-focused merchandising and high member loyalty (about 125 million members). 

In FY24, Costco should generate high-single-digit - low-double-digit EPS growth, driven by an MSD comp, MSD-HSD membership fee income growth, leverage of customer data, and effective management of merchandising and costs.

Price Action: COST shares are trading higher by 1.25% at $563.37 on the last check Monday.