Tesla 'Clearly Missed Street Estimates': Analysts Weigh In On Q3 EV Deliveries

Shares of Tesla Inc TSLA traded down more than 2% Monday before rebounding after the company reported lower-than-expected vehicle production and delivery numbers for the third quarter.

Tesla produced 430,488 vehicles, down from 479,700 in the second quarter; 435,059 vehicles were delivered, down from the second quarter's 466,140.

Tesla said the reduced numbers were a product of planned downtimes aimed at facilitating factory upgrades, and that its full-year 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles was unchanged.

The majority of the vehicles produced were Models 3 and Y, with 416,800 made, while Models S and X accounted for 13,688 of the vehicles produced.

What do the analysts think?

Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives said third-quarter delivery numbers were not impressive, falling below Wall Street's projections due to longer downtimes in Shanghai and Austin factories, pushing an estimated 20,000 units into the fourth quarter.

Ives, while maintaining an Outperform rating and a $350 price target, is bullish on Tesla's anticipated growth and momentum in the coming quarters with the Model 3 refresh and the initiation of Cybertruck production.

“Even when factoring in the shutdowns with no rose-colored glasses Tesla clearly missed Street estimates this quarter with bulls left disappointed, although we see better days ahead for 4Q and 2024,” Ives told investors.

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Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, highlighted the 15% miss on Models S and X, despite the price cuts over the quarter, and said implied consensus may come down for the fourth quarter.

Outlook: Tesla is set to issue its third-quarter earnings results on Oct. 18. The Street pegged Tesla's quarterly earnings at 80 cents per share with a revenue expectation of $24.79 billion, according to Benzinga Pro.

The EV giant's commitment to 1.8 million deliveries for 2023 — contingent on a strong fourth quarter — signaled a continuance of Elon Musk's ambitious growth trajectory, supported by stable pricing and upcoming model releases.

TSLA Price action: Shares of Tesla are trading 0.68% higher to $251.91, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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