Retail Outlook For 2023: Exploring California's Cannabis Landscape With Z&A's Analyst Report

As New York state prepares to issue over 1,500 new licenses across the cannabis supply chain, including 800 dispensary licenses, Z&A's latest report delves into the retail landscape in California, a market with more than 1,000 licensed retail stores. What's driving success in this diverse market and how are sales trends shaping up?

"In the California cannabis market, revenue per store surpasses $4 million, but the real story lies in the significant revenue variations among counties," Pablo Zuanic, chief analyst at Z&A, wrote in the firm's latest industry report.

California Retail Cannabis Market Analysis: Retail Revenue Variations by County

• Diverse Revenue Landscape: In the California cannabis market, retail revenue per store surpasses $4 million, significantly higher than other mature markets. However, this figure varies widely by county. San Diego County leads the pack, boasting twice the state average, while Santa Clara County stands out with over 5 times the average. In contrast, neighboring Monterey falls below the state average at $3 million per store.

"While flower retail prices remained stable in 3Q23 compared to the previous quarter, they declined by 14% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market for flower products," Zuanic wrote. 

• Retail Scale Matters: The size of retail operations matters, particularly as retailer profit margins for flower products narrow. Additionally, a strategic location in less store-dense counties with above-average revenue per store proves crucial for success.

For a comprehensive understanding of the topics covered in the report, subscribe and watch Pablo Zuanic's panel discussions from the recent Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference held in Chicago on September 27 and 28. Experts delved into crucial aspects such as navigating capital challenges, formulating effective long-term survival strategies, and addressing the future of rescheduling cannabis, among other key business topics.

Market Update and Sales Trends

• Stabilizing Sales: With a current run rate of $5.3 billion in sales in the California cannabis market, the market experienced an 11% year-on-year drop in 3Q23, followed by a 6% sequential decline. However, sales appear to be stabilizing after a surge in 2021 due to stimulus measures and stay-at-home mandates.
• Flower Price Stability: While flower retail prices remained stable in 3Q23 compared to the previous quarter, they declined by 14% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market for flower products. Retailer margins for flowers decreased to $2.76 per gram in 3Q23, down from $3.30 in the same period last year.

Store Density and Consumption

• Low Store Density: In the California cannabis market, despite having over 1,200 stores, the state has lower store density relative to its population and landmass compared to other states. With 29 storefronts per 1 million people, the state falls behind states like Oregon and Colorado in terms of store accessibility.
• Lower Consumption per Capita: California's cannabis consumption per capita stands at $135, significantly lower than states like Michigan, Colorado, and Massachusetts, which have figures ranging from $260 to $320. This discrepancy is attributed to higher taxes, a large illicit trade, and lower store accessibility.

"California's lower store density and consumption per capita are key factors contributing to its unique market dynamics compared to states like Michigan and Colorado," Zuanic wrote. 

Store Revenue Disparities by County

• County-Level Revenue: In the California cannabis market, retail revenue varies considerably by county. Among the ten most populous counties, San Diego County stores average $8.4 million in revenue per store annually, followed by Sacramento, Alameda, Contra Costa, Orange County, and San Bernardino, all exceeding the state average. Ventura and Riverside lag with lower revenues.
• Small Counties: In counties with populations between 400K and 1 million, Kern County and San Mateo top the revenue charts, while Santa Barbara, San Francisco County, and Monterey are at the lower end. Most fall within the $4-5 million range.
• Standouts: Notably, in the California cannabis market, Santa Clara County stands out with $21.3 million in revenue per store, followed by Marin, Nevada, San Luis Obispo, and Kings.

A Glimpse at StateHouse and Gold Flora

• StateHouse STHZF: Formed from a four-part merger, StateHouse reported $25.3 million in 2Q23 sales, with 15 stores in California. On average, this equates to $3.5 million in sales per store. Considering county averages, StateHouse could potentially achieve around $8 million in revenue per store.
• Gold Flora GRAM: The result of a merger between Gold Flora and The Parent Company, Gold Flora has 15 stores and reported proforma revenues of $68 million for 1H23. While precise retail revenue figures are unavailable, county-level sales data suggests Gold Flora could approach over $7 million in revenue per store in the California cannabis market.

"Our analysis suggests that with the right strategies and county-level considerations, companies like StateHouse and Gold Flora could aspire to achieve impressive revenue per store figures in the California cannabis market," Zuanic wrote. 

For a comprehensive understanding of the topics covered in the report, subscribe and watch Pablo Zuanic's panel discussions from the recent Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference held in Chicago on September 27 and 28. Experts delved into crucial aspects such as navigating capital challenges, formulating effective long-term survival strategies, and addressing the future of rescheduling cannabis, among other key business topics.

Photo by Ahmet Yalçınkaya on Unsplash.