IgAN Treatment Market Worth Over $6B By 2032: Analyst Bearish On Povetacicept's Promising Role

RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage on Alpine Immune Sciences Inc ALPN, noting that the autoimmune disease market (over $165 billion) is meaningful for the company's lead candidate - povetacicept

The analysts Gregory Renza and Supawat Thongthip initiated with an Outperform rating and a price target of $19.

The analyst perceives povetacicept as having a robust foundation for advancement in autoimmune indications, primarily due to its emphasis on BAFF and APRIL, which are well-established therapeutic targets. 

The IgAN, the primary focus of the RUBY-3 trial, holds substantial market potential (estimated at over $6 billion by 2032) and is gaining growing acknowledgment from major pharmaceutical companies. 

As povetacicept's anti-APRIL mechanism is well established in IgAN, a faster path to clinical validation and advancement for povetacicept in this indication is anticipated.

Furthermore, the upcoming phase 2 SLE/lupus trial (RUBY-2) presents a promising prospect with a risk-reward balance that could create significant value.

The Phase 1 study involving healthy volunteers unveiled a predominantly favorable safety profile indicating on-target activity. 

RBC anticipates insights from the forthcoming RUBY-3 data presentation at the ASN and potentially from RUBY-4 in 4Q23, which will provide disease-specific validation. 

If this dataset presents compelling evidence of disease modification through biomarkers and functional assessments, it can potentially reduce the risk associated with ALPN's clinical development and pave the way for a substantial increase in value.

Price Action: ALPN shares are up 5.73% at $12.37 on the last check Thursday.