As JPMorgan, Citi Kickstart Big Bank Earnings This Week, Analyst Sees Silver Lining In Cloud: 'May Not Take Much For Banks To Produce An Upside Surprise'

Big bank earnings kick off this week, featuring early reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM and Citigroup, Inc. C.

2 Key Focus Areas: When the major banks release their quarterly results, all eyes will be on the impact of the 76 basis points increase in the 10-year Treasury yield during the third quarter, as well as the stability of deposits, as noted by FactSet analyst Sean Ryan.

Ryan anticipates a slowdown in the flow of demand deposits into money market accounts and CDs. This shift is likely to result in increased deposit costs and, consequently, exert pressure on net interest margins.

The analyst also raises the prospect of overdraft fee revenue beginning to rebound, as consumers have largely exhausted their accumulated savings.

Loan growth is expected to remain “very sluggish,” according to Ryan, and he foresees continued growth in loan loss provisions, reflecting ongoing credit quality challenges.

See also: Best Financial Services Stocks

Non-interest revenue streams are projected to deliver mixed performances, and Ryan expects four broad things:

• Weak mortgage volume
• Fairly strong credit card spending
• Sequential growth in investment banking
• Depressed advisory fees

Ryan also expects asset management revenues to mirror the market-driven decline in assets under management in both equities and fixed income.

Summing it up, given the array of challenges facing banks, Ryan suggests that the most optimistic perspective on the upcoming earnings season is that it may not take much for banks to surpass expectations.

Earnings Schedule:

Friday: Citigroup, JPMorgan, PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC, BlackRock, Inc. BLK

Tuesday, Oct. 17: Bank of America Corp. BAC, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. BKC, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS, Wells Fargo & Company WFC

Wednesday, Oct. 18: Morgan Stanley MS, State Street Corp. STT, Northern Trust Corp. NTRS, and US Bancorp. USB.

Stock Performances: The Invesco KBW Bank ETF KBWB, an exchange-traded fund tracking the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index‘s performance, inched up 0.58% to $39.81, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The ETF lost 1.45% during the third quarter compared to a steeper 3.65% pullback by the S&P 500 Index.

Read Next: US Banks Q3 Earnings Preview: Why Bank Of America Analysts Are Bullish On Financial Stocks

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